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Buy, Sell or Hold: Why NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) is the Energy Sector's "Triple-Threat" Profit Play

August 31st, 2009 No comments

By Horacio Marquez
Contributing Editor
Money Morning

If NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) were an athletic prospect, scouts would rate it as a “triple threat.” That’s because the Princeton-based wholesale power generator is involved in all three of the key energy sources of the future: Solar, wind and nuclear.

And that’s only part of the reason I like this stock.

Growing profit margins and earnings momentum add to the energy company’s appeal – and a rebound in U.S. economic activity hasn’t even begun in full.

When NRG announced its second-quarter results a few weeks ago, the company said that its profits tripled from a year ago – eclipsing Wall Street estimates and setting a new record. It also boosted its earnings guidance for all of 2009, and increased its stock-buyback target from its previous $330 million worth of its shares to $500 million.

Income from continuing operations was $432 million – a marked improvement over last year’s $41 million loss.  And its recent acquisition of the Texas retail-energy business of Reliant Energy Inc. [now RRI Energy Inc. (NYSE: RRI)] is starting to pay off.

In two months the tie-up has already delivered $200 million of the planned $400 million in adjusted earnings before income taxes, depreciation and amortization (essentially a cash-flow metric that professional investors refer to as “EBITDA”) gains for the year.  With disciplined management this acquisition should outperform its estimated gains.  This analysis is being recognized as we speak by the market, with unusual January call option activity in RRI stock last Friday.

NRG has interest in 44 power plants with 24,005 megawatts (MW) net ownership, most of which is in the United States. Plants in Texas and the Northeast account for almost 18,000 MW, giving the company positioning in fairly strong markets where environmental, but NRG also has operations in Australia and Germany.

The company distinguishes itself by having operating margins that are roughly double that of its peers – the product of its efficient fleet composition and prudent active energy price hedging policies. The hedges NRG currently has in place are likely to outperform analysts’ estimates, as well. That’s because no analyst wants to be caught over-estimating upside, especially in volatile markets like energy futures. So, Wall Street consistently undervalues the expected value of these hedges, which the firm carries on a mark-to-market basis. That was the case in the second quarter.

With respect to the economy, industrial sector inventories are very low, meaning they will need to be replenished in the third quarter.  The government’s Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS), popularly known as “Cash for Clunkers,” gave a nice boost to industrial production, and some signs of stability and even some gains – let’s cross our fingers – can be seen in some areas of the housing market

We’re by no means out of the woods, yet, but U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) did better than expected in the last quarter – shrinking by just 1% – and is likely to beat analysts’ expectations in the third quarter as well. That’s good news for NRG because the third quarter is traditionally the most profitable quarter of the year for utilities. Prices should firm up, benefiting this company’s already stellar return on investment (ROI).

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And in addition to being well positioned to profit in the short-term, NRG is an outstanding long-term play because it’s ready to capitalize on the next stage of “green” energy development: low carbon emissions. After all, green is the color of money.

The company’s natural-gas, new and existing commercial nuclear, and new and very large wind-and-solar-power projects are sure to benefit longer term from the move towards environmentally-friendly forms of energy generation.

With total liquidity of $4 billion, NRG is in an impeccable position to develop its planned projects and take advantage of small opportunistic acquisitions, should they appear.  The company has a very prudently managed balance sheet and a shrewd growth management discipline, which is an invaluable attribute in adverse economic conditions where cash is king.

And let’s say that all of these advantages that we have outlined here have not gone unnoticed by the competition:  Two companies in the last three years have attempted to acquire NRG.  Most recently, Exelon Corp. (NYSE: EXC) attempted to buy NRG outright. And even when the takeover attempt was rebuffed, NRG stock did not suffer. Exelon has since backed off from its acquisition attempt.  That stock-price stability reflects strong investor confidence in management’s execution. 

At Friday’s closing price of $27.50, NRG’s stock was still down about 30% from its 52-week high of $39.09 – just one of several reasons it still has room to rise, even after a scorching 91% run from its 52-week low of $14.39.

The stock is trading at a low 10 times forward earnings, has been consistently above its 200-day moving average since mid-July and is oversold by many proprietary measures.  This stock could be ripe for a strong upward move as we approach the end of the year.  What’s more important is that the intrinsic long-term value of the company is undervalued at these prices.

Recommendation:  Buy NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) at market (**).

(**) – Special Note of Disclosure: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in NRG Energy Inc.

[Editor's Note: Veteran Wall Streeter Horacio Marquez is the author of Money Morning's hugely popular "Buy, Sell or Hold" series, and is also the editor of the longstanding "Money Moves Alert" trading service.

In a new free report, Marquez has identified a category of stocks he has labeled "rocket stocks," which display key characteristics hinting that they're ready to move. One such characteristic: Heavy insider buying. In fact, one particular sector right now is seeing especially heavy insider buying - and many investors will be surprised to discover just what sector it is, and what companies top executives are buying into. For a free report that details these "rocket stock" plays, and that outlines this torrent of insider buying, please click here.]

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Buy, Sell or Hold: The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (NYSE: LQD)

August 24th, 2009 No comments

By Horacio Marquez
Contributing Editor
Money Morning

The U.S. stock market has enjoyed a strong rally since the early spring, but while the economy has shown improvement, it still faces major headwinds. So it may be best to hedge against the U.S. dollar, which is likely to experience a significant decline over the next few months.

There are a lot of uncertainties permeating the market right now, not the least of which is healthcare reform. Will that reform entail a public option that could add $1 trillion to the deficit?  How is reform going to be financed?  And is it going to mean higher costs for employers across the board, or just the healthcare insurers? 

Investing is made infinitely more difficult when 18% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is hanging in the balance.

And you still have to consider: 

  • That unemployment is likely to keep rising, perhaps over 10%.
  • That the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing is slowing down.
  • That there is almost certainly a second wave of home foreclosures on top of the current commercial real estate epidemic.
  • And that retail sales are still a long way from recovery.

There is also reason to believe that the U.S. dollar will continue to be weak, though it probably won’t sell off precipitously.

The U.S. dollar has weekend against the Euro lately, having fallen 0.8% Friday.  Technically speaking the chart shows a traditional “cup and handle” formation that could lead to an acceleration of the dollar’s downward trend.  Gold prices, up about 13% Friday, confirm this trend and could soon break through the $1000/oz resistance.

Fundamentally, if the economy – encumbered by high unemployment and a relapse of the housing market – does not pick up the dollar could be further imperiled.

Weakness in the dollar will also be affected by the Fed’s withdrawal of liquidity, which is likely to proceed at a gradual pace.

Finally, diversification away from the dollar among the world’s central banks is taking place, albeit at a slower pace than many analysts have suggested, and that too, is weakening the dollar.

Let’s concede that there is no currency that could supplant the dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. So, it’s unlikely that the world’s central banks will simply abandon the dollar anytime soon. However, we must also acknowledge that a reduction in the weightings of the U.S. dollar within central bank reserves is already underway.

An Aug. 14 article by BNP Paribas currency strategist Ian Stannard in Euromoney recently described this gradual shift in currency reserves.  The article noted that only 62.5% of global currency reserves are in U.S. dollars, down from about 66% in 2005.

So I do not anticipate a sudden shift in central bank reserves, but rather a continuation of the measured restructuring we’ve seen so far. Thus, the slow weakening trend in the U.S. dollar is likely to continue.

So, in this very uncertain investment scenario, I prefer to go for more secure returns in bonds.  And we can achieve great diversification at a cheap cost with the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (NYSE: LQD).

For starters, its weighted average coupon of 6.26% offers a current yield slightly north of 6% at today’s prices.  Investors are assuming interest rate risk, which means that if interest rates climb, the value of the bond has to come down.  But in the short term, there is no immediate threat of inflation.

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Looking at the major holdings of the fund – which has no single position that accounts for more than 1.26% of its total holdings – I see some names that have demonstrated continued stability and others that have shown recent signs of improvement, such as American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP).  So I do not expect any major credit spread hiccup here.  I certainly do not see any hiccup that a 6.26% coupon would not compensate for.

For an additional hedge against dollar weakness, I suggest you revisit my June 8 recommendation of the iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD). You may also consider buying a bit of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: UDN) fund.  Do not go overboard. Err on being light, rather than heavy on hedging, since timing currency moves is very difficult.

Recommendation: buy iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (NYSE: LQD) at market.  Consider hedging part of the US dollar risk by buying the iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) and PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: UDN). Both funds should account for a fraction of your position.  Have a 5% stop loss on UDN (**).

 (**) – Special Note of Disclosure: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in the the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund, the iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF, or the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish fund.

[Editor's Note: Veteran Wall Streeter Horacio Marquez is the author of Money Morning's hugely popular "Buy, Sell or Hold" series, and is also the editor of the longstanding "Money Moves Alert" trading service.

In a new free report, Marquez has identified a category of stocks he has labeled "rocket stocks," which display key characteristics hinting that they're ready to move. One such characteristic: Heavy insider buying. In fact, one particular sector right now is seeing especially heavy insider buying - and many investors will be surprised to discover just what sector it is, and what companies top executives are buying into. For a free report that details these "rocket stock" plays, and that outlines this torrent of insider buying, please click here.]

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Buy, Sell or Hold: Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) Will Get Is Due for a Boost From Government Spending

August 17th, 2009 No comments

By Horacio Marquez
Contributing Editor
Money Morning

Steel maker Nucor Corp.’s (NYSE: NUE) stock has rallied some 51% from its March 3 low of $29.84 a share and has twice bumped against its recent high of $49.91 a share. 

The stock is still a far cry from its record-high level of $83.56, but is only 0% below its 52-week high of $53.46.  Much has changed since then, as the U.S. auto industry is no longer producing the 16 million cars it produced in 2007, nor the 13 million it managed to sell last year.  This year we are looking at some 10 million units sold, according to J.D. Power and Associates, the leading forecaster in the industry.

But there is encouraging news:  The very quick restructuring of both General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GRM) and Chrysler Group LLC, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s efforts to stabilize the financial markets, and the U.S. government’s fiscal stimulus plans have helped keep the economy from falling into a depression.  The Fed’s support for the auto industry included buying auto receivables under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) program, in order to restart this type of securitization.

Therefore, the paralysis of sales that we saw late last year, when the financial system froze and there was no financing available, has subsided and sales are increasing.  In fact, J.D. Power expects U.S. vehicle sales to increase to 11.5 million units next year, a full 15% pickup from projected 2009 levels

In fact, we are already seeing an increase in auto sales already, thanks in no small part to the government’s Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS), popularly known as “Cash for Clunkers.” So far, CARS has spent some $1.29 billion and Congress has expanded the original $1 billion authorization by another $2 billion. 

Total light vehicle sales for July were just shy of 1 million units, a milestone the industry hasn’t topped since August 2008, mostly due to the program’s success.

This shot in the arm on the back of the general cost restructuring that Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is carrying out under Allan Mulally has already prompted Ford to increase production of its Focus model

Similarly, Chrysler has reported that it is running two plants in overtime and a third shift at another plant just to keep up with demand.  And GM, which is seeing a huge rebound in sales, will add to this by increasing advertising spending and selling new cars on eBay Inc.’s (Nasdaq: EBAY) popular online auction Web site. Most of Wall Street is in “wait-and-see” mode, which gives us more of an incentive to jump in.  But the steel story is not just about cars.

Nucor will not only profit from the remaining $1.75 billion to be deployed through the government’s cash for clunkers program and the general improvement in market conditions, but on the pick-up in government construction in the United States that will result from U.S. President Barack Obama’s massive fiscal stimulus.

Additionally, the company will benefit from the already massive stimuli being deployed in China, Brazil, India and Russia.  And let us not forget Europe, where the European Central Bank will soon consider raising its benchmark lending rate to 1.25% from its current record low of 1% in order to prevent inflationary expectations from building up.

China will achieve more than 8% growth this year, driven by public spending, especially in construction and a strong pickup in auto sales  (up 63.6% in July from a year earlier) and domestic appliances.  All of these have a very high content of steel. 

Similarly, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by more than 6%, barely down from last year’s 6.7% expansion. Auto sales in India jumped 18% last month.  Remember that India’s Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE ADR: TTM) launched the cheapest car in the world last January and this is likely to work wonders in today’s budget-conscious market.

So what about Nucor itself?

The company reported a second quarter loss of $133 million, which improved over the first quarter’s $189 million loss.  But the key is that volumes are already turning around.

Volumes increased 11% in the second quarter, which allowed the company to increase its capacity utilization from 45% to a still very low 46%. 

And this is where the upside lies. 

In capital-intensive industries like steel, the very high fixed costs induce very large swings in profits, depending on volumes.  And not only did Nucor see its volumes pick up in the second quarter, the trend should continue accelerating in the third quarter and beyond, thanks to the recent burst in car sales and increased government infrastructure spending.

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In addition, prior to the cash for clunkers program, Nucor announced it already expected to see an improvement in its third-quarter results. The company said that many of its customers had run their inventories too low and would need to replenish them just to meet demand.

So, at reporting time, investors could be very positively surprised by Nucor and many other companies in the sector, which will provoke many analysts to increase their stock targets.

And to make the whole story even better, we are counting on increasing inflationary expectations and a weaker dollar, which will continue to drive portfolio managers to hedge this risk in commodity stocks. 

That means Nucor, which has been bumping into strong resistance levels since the beginning of January, but making higher lows in every subsequent correction, is likely to break out of its current range with an explosive rally before it even reports third-quarter earnings. 

Nucor stock closed down 92 cents, or 1.93%, Friday at $46.79 a share.

Recommendation: Buy Nucor (NYSE: NUE) at market (**).

 (**)  Special Note of Disclosure: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in Nucor (NYSE: NUE).

[Editor's Note: Veteran Wall Streeter Horacio Marquez is the author of Money Morning's hugely popular "Buy, Sell or Hold" series, and is also the editor of the longstanding "Money Moves Alert" trading service.

In a new free report, Marquez has identified a category of stocks he has labeled "rocket stocks," which display key characteristics hinting that they're ready to move. One such characteristic: Heavy insider buying. In fact, one particular sector right now is seeing especially heavy insider buying - and many investors will be surprised to discover just what sector it is, and what companies top executives are buying into. For a free report that details these "rocket stock" plays, and that outlines this torrent of insider buying, please click here.]

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Buy, Sell or Hold: Will PepsiCo Inc.'s (NYSE: PEP) Recent Acquisitions Pay Off?

August 10th, 2009 No comments

By Horacio Marquez
Contributing Editor
Money Morning

Since I recommended PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) on Oct. 20, the stock has greatly outperformed the market, up about 10%. 

However, the stock has underperformed since the market began its rebound on March 10. And since the end of March, Pepsi’s shares have lagged those of arch rival, The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO), since the end of March, as well.  I recommended Coca Cola last week after the company reported stellar growth in the emerging markets.

While Pepsi’s less-than-stellar performance is not yet a major concern, the trend is discomforting.  In addition, there has been a major divergence in the strategies of these two companies. 

While both Coke and Pepsi divested of their bottling operations many years ago, Pepsi just agreed to buy back two of them: Pepsi Bottling Group Inc. (NYSE: PBG) and PepsiAmericas Inc. (NYSE: PAS). And it paid a stiff premium in each deal, about 24% and 23%, respectively, above their pre-deal market prices. The total value of the deal was a cool $7.8 billion. 

Now allow me to say that these companies are impressive operations by themselves:

  • Pepsi Bottling Group is PepsiCo’s largest bottler. The company takes in $14 billion a year and operates in the United States, Canada, Greece, Mexico, Russia, Spain and Turkey, and boasts 67,000 employees.
  • Pepsi Americas is PepsiCo’s second-largest bottler. It brings in $4.9 billion annually from operations in the United States, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.  In addition, its new joint venture covers the Caribbean and Central America.

So why bother with these acquisitions?

The justification for this move is that “in a rapidly changing, more-complicated global market, a leaner, more agile business model is pretty important," said Pepsi Bottling Group Chief Executive Officer Eric J. Foss.

Pepsi touted the tie-up itself, citing such advantages as attempting to create a more-flexible, efficient and competitive system that is more inclusive of other Pepsi brands.

The idea is that a merged operation will allow for much faster introduction of new products, for bundled offers, for enhanced customer service, and for cost savings from redundancies and economies of scale.

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Sure, we can buy into many of those ideas, which are sure to result in some gains.  In fact, we can even envision the many new marketing initiatives that will result from these acquisitions.

But make no mistake: What has pushed Pepsi to go in this direction is the superiority of Coca Cola in the emerging markets.  While both firms prided themselves on product innovation and marketing, Coca-Cola has come out on top, as I wrote last week.

In addition, the capital requirements of a bottling and distribution operation are very high and the return on equity is much lower than Coca-Cola’s core business of creating the product, marketing it, and selling the concentrate and bottling rights to bottlers.  This decision will make less cash available in the immediate future for stock buybacks and dividend increases and represents a big gamble.

There are two pressing questions to have in mind:

  • Will the marketing synergies PepsiCo claims it will garner from the deals be successful in winning market share away from its rival and thus justify the added capital requirements of the newly acquired operations?
  • And will Pepsi be able to capture the synergies from the merger fast enough?

What’s for sure is that Pepsi’s action goes against its decision to concentrate on its core competencies. Management theory has proven time and again that companies should concentrate in one segment of the entire value chain (in Coca Coal’s case, product innovation and marketing) and leave the less-attractive and less-profitable areas to others.

Furthermore, it’s clear to me that “asset-light” companies – firms such as C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: CHRW), which divested assets that have large financing requirements and that carry large fixed costs – reduce the cyclicality of the business, and thus reduce the risks to profits from economic downturns.  That means “asset-light” companies are preferable to “asset-heavy” companies.

Therefore, my bias is against the added complexity and capital requirements involved with the Pepsi deal.  And we must now wait to see if the company can deliver on the two key questions above.  But we can never count out Pepsi’s innovation and resiliency, and so we will give them the benefit of the doubt.

PepsiCo stock closed down 9 cents, or 0.16%, at $57.74 a share Friday. That’s up 32% from its hit 52-week low of $43.78, reached in Early March.

Recommendation: “Hold” PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP), but do not add to your position, and give preference to Coca Cola’s stock – at least until Pepsi is able to prove that it can execute the merger efficiencies and win market share from its arch-rival (**).

** Special Note of Disclosure: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in PepsiCo Inc.

[Editor's Note: Veteran Wall Streeter Horacio Marquez is the author of Money Morning's hugely popular "Buy, Sell or Hold" series, and is also the editor of the longstanding "Money Moves Alert" trading service.

In a new free report, Marquez has identified a category of stocks he has labeled "rocket stocks," which display key characteristics hinting that they're ready to move. One such characteristic: Heavy insider buying. In fact, one particular sector right now is seeing especially heavy insider buying - and many investors will be surprised to discover just what sector it is, and what companies top executives are buying into. For a free report that details these "rocket stock" plays, and that outlines this torrent of insider buying, please click here.]

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Buy, Sell or Hold: The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) Continues to Deliver Knockout Profits

August 3rd, 2009 No comments

By Horacio Marquez
Contributing Editor
Money Morning

Back on Feb. 17, as the market was on sell-off mode, I recommended buying The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO)

The stock is up some 16% from our entry point.  That’s because Coca-Cola recently reported a near-20% jump in profit, which soared to 67 cents a share, excluding restructuring charges. 

Coca-Cola beat earnings, increased guidance, increased dividends and reinstated its stock buyback program.  The company plans to repurchase $1 billion in shares of stock in the second half of 2009.  What more do we need?  The answer is: Consistent performance.

As I tracked the developments in Coca Cola and their global markets, I ascertained that my original view remains unchanged and Coca Cola should keep growing profits consistently, which should keep propelling its stock up.

Remember, on March 9, a few of weeks after our Coca Cola recommendation, I called the U.S. market turn by recommending a pro-cyclical energy play with Diamond Offshore Drilling Co. (NYSE: DO).  That call coincided with the turn on Diamond Offshore stock as well, which has since soared about 67%. 

Earlier, on October 27, I had called for the turn on iShares MSCI Brazil Index (NYSE: EWZ), which has since soared more than 90%.

The point is that emerging markets, as was my thesis, are going to turn around much faster and come back much stronger than developed economies. 

Prudent emerging economies – like Brazil and Chile – having enjoyed a few years of exponential growth in commodity prices did not over-extended themselves. Instead, they captured a sizable portion of those huge price increases and turned them into huge national savings, improving their fiscal positions.  They kept their banks clean and disciplined and became net creditors to the world.

So, while the advanced economies are saddled with debt, many emerging economies are the exact opposite.  Their fiscal positions are strong; their social security systems are not in peril, and their population growth means strong economic growth.    

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So, my initial thesis was predicated primarily on the fact that strong growth in emerging markets would lead to success for major international players.

While it’s true that Coca-Cola’s soft drinks are consumer staples, which are very resilient in economic downturns, the company’s biggest advantage is that a full 75% of its income is generated abroad. 

Additionally, Coca-Cola is the most widely recognized brand name in the world.  With a distribution network that covers more than 200 countries and a 50% of the global market for carbonated drinks, Coca-Cola is the poster-child of a multinational.

What’s more, having kept its rival PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) at bay by beating them in the market, their price wars are not an issue any more.  This is crucial because pricing power has returned. 

The strong U.S. dollar shaved 14% off of operating income during the quarter, but this is a temporary phenomenon, since the dollar is likely to remain week in the months to come.

Meanwhile, Coca-Cola continues to excel in emerging markets, just as we anticipated.  While overall volume growth was 4%, up from 2% in the first quarter, emerging markets took the prize: China was up 14%, India 33% and Brazil up 5%. 

India, for example, has a high birth rate and 1 billion people with an average age of 25 years, and going lower.  This is a very receptive crowd for carbonated, sugary drinks, especially as their income soars.

Hence, with the strong recovery in China, India, Brazil and Russia, and many more emerging markets, plus the renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar, Coca-Cola should continue to perform in the second half and beyond.

Coca-Cola stock closed Friday up 17 cents, or 0.34%, at $49.84 a share.

 Recommendation: Buy The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) at market (**).

(**)  Special Note of Disclosure: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO).

[Editor's Note: Veteran Wall Streeter Horacio Marquez is the author of Money Morning's hugely popular "Buy, Sell or Hold" series, and is also the editor of the longstanding "Money Moves Alert" trading service.

In a new free report, Marquez has identified a category of stocks he has labeled "rocket stocks," which display key characteristics hinting that they're ready to move. One such characteristic: Heavy insider buying. In fact, one particular sector right now is seeing especially heavy insider buying - and many investors will be surprised to discover just what sector it is, and what companies top executives are buying into. For a free report that details these "rocket stock" plays, and that outlines this torrent of insider buying, please click here.]

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